Thursday, January 04, 2007

Back to work..., two days after most of the rest of the world. But only two days until the weekend, when I go up to Wolverhampton and watch Oldham play Wolves. And in the meantime I can work on football related bits of my Ph.D, which always helps when I'm not feeling overly motivated.

Today I'll spend a good portion putting together a dataset of match details from Premiership and Championship matches going back to 2002, in order to base a model of goal arrival on this dataset. First I hope to replicate some results from another paper (Dixon and Robinson) by using their model, a Poisson regression model, and then I hope to use a slightly different type of model to estimate the probability of goal arrival at any point in a football match. The aim is to access the efficiency of betting markets, and with Karen Croxson, who has tons of data on betting markets, I intend to do this. Should be fun.

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