Saturday, March 10, 2007

Back in prediction mode...

Without too much attention given, as my thesis has taken hold this last week, but running existing models on updated data to get new predictions, here are this week's predictions.

Tomorrow Oldham entertain Doncaster at home. We always lose to Doncaster, so I'm pessimistic. My attendance model suggests 5628, which doesn't seem a mile out. Oldham's form is shot, and 5 defeats in 6 home matches suggests the crowds won't be flocking. Doncaster I wouldn't have thought would bring too many supporters, though I could be surprised. They're on a good run, having won at Forest on Tuesday, and given Latics have picked up one point from the last 15, it's not looking overly positive. I don't know what effect having the game on Sunday will have. Given Latics have started playing more Sunday games recently, it might be worth throwing in a Sunday `dummy' to try and see if there is an effect, like there is with a Tuesday.

Turning to match score prediction, I've run my model additionally on all League One matches this weekend, most of which are 15 minutes old as I write. The model suggests the probabilities given in the caption below:

One of these has already come to fruition, as Huddersfield beat Bradford 2-0. Oldham are favourites against Doncaster, but I would add only because this model doesn't include form.
Nonetheless, comparison with Finktank shows that again I'm reasonably in line with their complicated models: they put Oldham's probability of winning at 43.4%, although they see a draw less likely at 27.3%, and Doncaster at 29.3%. I'd likely agree with theirs - a draw is less likely than a Doncaster win.
The following scores are most likely:

0-0 17.5%
1-0 18.0%
0-1 12.5%
1-1 12.9%
2-1 6.6%
1-2 4.6%
I'm not overly inclined to put too much weight on these, although having said that, I don't expect it to be a high scoring encounter tomorrow. Maybe I'll be confident, and go for a 1-0 win, a bit like those early season 1-0 wins over Scunthorpe and Swansea, which came when the team was shaky on confidence, as it likely it at the moment.
Come on Oldham!


Post a Comment

<< Home